Risk assets are trading down because the dollar index and Treasury yields profit from Friday’s blowout nonfarm payrolls report and the Palisades Fires posing a risk to the insurance sector and a few P&C firms.
BTC is down 2%, changing hands in the important thing support zone of $90,000 and $93,000, with alternative cryptocurrencies posting larger losses as usual. ETH has dropped to the bottom since Dec. 21 and the risk-off has clouded XRP’s bullish technical outlook (see TA section). Whales likely collected XRP over South Korea-based Upbit over the weekend. AI coins is the worst performing sub-sector of the past 24 hours. In traditional markets, futures tied to the S&P 500 point to negative open alongside continued downside volatility within the British pound and emerging market currencies.
The danger-off sentiment, nevertheless, didn’t stop Michael Saylor from indicating a possible for one more bitcoin purchase as he shared an update on MicroStrategy’s bitcoin purchase tracker. If it could put a dent into the negative market sentiment, is one other story. “The firm’s purchase last Monday amounted to roughly $100 million, which had limited market impact, but underscores the firm’s ongoing demand,” Valentin Fournier, analyst at BRN said.
Other things being equal, the chance of BTC losing the support zone appears high as some investment banks consider the Fed rate-cutting cycle is over, with Bank of America suggesting a possible for a rate hike. Per some observers, the consensus is that prices will deflate to $70K, followed by a renewed rally.
Meanwhile, the 30-day moving average of the Coinbase-Binance BTC price differential, which has a knack of marking major price tops, has slipped to the bottom since no less than 2019, an indication of weaker stateside demand.
Over the near term, the crypto market is more likely to concentrate on President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration on Jan. 20 and the continuing FTX claim distributions, in keeping with Coinbase Institutional.
Jan. 13: Solayer (LAYER) “Season 1” airdrop snapshot for staking participants, liquidity providers, and partner ecosystem users.
Jan. 15: Derive (DRV) to create and distribute latest tokens in token generation event.
Jan. 15: Mintlayer version 1.0.0 release. The mainnet upgrade introduces atomic swaps, enabling native BTC cross-chain swaps.
Jan. 16, 3:00 a.m.: Trading for the Sonic token (S) is about to start out on Binance, featuring pairs like S/USDT, S/BTC, and S/BNB.
Jan. 17: Primary listing of SOLV, the native token of Solv Protocol.
Macro
Jan. 13, 2:00 p.m.: The U.S. Department of the Treasury releases December 2024’s Monthly Treasury Statement report. Monthly budget deficit Est. $62B vs. Prev. $367B.
Jan. 14, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases December 2024’s PPI data.
PPI MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.4%.
Core PPI MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.2%.
Core PPI YoY Est. 3.7% vs. Prev. 3.4%.
PPI YoY Est. 3.4% vs. Prev. 3%.
Jan. 14, 8:55 a.m.: U.S. Redbook YoY for the week ending on Jan. 11. Prev. 6.8%.
Jan. 15, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases December 2024’s Consumer Price Index Summary.
Core Inflation Rate MoM Est. 0.2% vs. Prev. 0.3%.
Core Inflation Rate YoY Est. 3.3% vs. Prev. 3.3%.
Inflation Rate MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.3%.
Inflation Rate YoY Est. 2.8% vs. Prev. 2.7%.
Jan. 16, 2:00 a.m.: The U.K.’s Office for National Statistics November 2024’s GDP estimate.
GDP MoM Est. 0.2% vs. Prev. -0.1%.
GDP YoY Prev. 1.3%.
Jan. 16, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Department of Labor releases the Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report for the week ending on Jan. 11. Initial Jobless Claims Est. 214K vs. Prev. 201K.
Jan. 14: Arbitrum (ARB) to unlock 0.93% of its circulating supply, value $70.65 million.
Jan. 15: Connex (CONX) to unlock 376% of its circulating supply, value $84.5 million.
Jan. 18: Ondo (ONDO) to unlock 134% of its circulating supply, value $2.19 billion.
Token Launches
No major token launches scheduled today.
Jan. 15: Derive (DRV) will launch, with 5% of supply going to sENA stakers. Jan. 16: Solayer (LAYER) to host token sale followed by five months of points farming.
Jan. 17: Solv Protocol (SOLV) to be listed on Binance.
AI agent tokens have suffered a deep correction, with ai16z now trading at $1.02, down greater than 60% from its record high set on Jan. 2. Virtual Protocol’s native token (VIRTUAL) has slumped an additional 16% over the past 24-hours to compound its recent downtrend, it’s now trading at $2.40 after surging to $5.04 on Jan. 2.
NFT project Azuki has announced the launch of ANIME, a Japanese cartoon-themed token that may distribute 50.5% of the token’s supply to the Azuki community. Azuki employees and advisors will receive 15.62% of supply sure by a vesting schedule.
Ethena’s ENA token has dropped by 11.4% over the past 24-hours as funding rates for ETH, which Ethena’s business model relies on, is starting to fall into neutral territory. Ethena still offers a yield of 11% on its stablecoin even though it’s unclear how long that rate is sustainable if funding rates proceed to fall.
Ether whales have begun offloading ETH at a loss with one trader selling 10,070 ETH for $33 million at a $1 million loss, the wallet still holds $45 million, on-chain data reported by Lookonchain shows.
Perpetual funding rates for TRX, AVAX, SUI and TON have flipped negative, indicating a bearish shift in positioning.
Front-end risk reversals show a powerful bias for BTC and ETH protective put options consistent with the risk-off sentiment in markets. Screen traders have bought puts at $92K, $90K and $87K in BTC.
There’s notable negative dealer gamma within the range of $90K and $93K, which implies these entities might trade out there’s direction to hedge book, bolstering the move. The same dynamic exists between $3.2K and $3,450. within the ETH market.
BTC and ETH DVOLs, measuring 30-day expected price swings, remain within the familiar ranges for the month.
BTC is down 3.12% from 4 p.m. ET Friday to $91,392.04 (24hrs: -2.67%)
ETH is down 4.78% at $3,109.45 (24hrs: -4.05%)
CoinDesk 20 is down 2.15% to three,310.23 (24hrs: -3.08%)
Ether staking yield is down 16 bps to 2.97%
BTC funding rate is at -0.0149% (-16.27% annualized) on Binance
DXY is up 0.35% at 110.04
Gold is down 0.13% at $2,705.00/oz
Silver is down 0.84% to $30.83/oz
Nikkei 225 closed -1.05% at 39,190.40
Hang Seng closed -1% at 18,874.14
FTSE is down 0.25% at 82,27.71
Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.92% at 4,931.47
DJIA closed on Friday -1.63% to 41,938.45
S&P 500 closed -1.54% at 5,827.04
Nasdaq closed -1.63% at 19,161.63
S&P/TSX Composite Index closed -1.22% at 24,767.70
S&P 40 Latin America closed -1.31% at 2,181.96
U.S. 10-year Treasury is up 2 bps at 4.79%
E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.78% to five,820.50
E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 1.18% to twenty,767.25
E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are down 0.48% at 42,022.00
BTC Dominance: 58.39
Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.033
Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 775 EH/s
Hashprice (spot): $54.6
Total Fees: 4.89 BTC/ $462,582
CME Futures Open Interest: 175,380 BTC
BTC priced in gold: 34.5 oz
BTC vs gold market cap: 9.82%
XRP broke out of a descending triangle pattern Friday, signaling a resumption of the broader uptrend from early November lows.
Nevertheless, BTC’s macro-led risk-off motion has pushed XRP back to the breakout point.
Be careful for a possible move back contained in the triangle, as failed breakouts are powerful bearish reversal signals.
MicroStrategy (MSTR): closed on Friday at $327.91 (-1.14%), down 4.95% at $311.67 in pre-market.
Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $258.78 (-0.47%), down 4.42% at $247.34 in pre-market.
Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$27.07 (+0.82%)
MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $17.86 (-2.62%), down 4.59% at $17.04 in pre-market.
Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $12.00 (-0.17%), down 5.25% at $11.37 in pre-market.
Core Scientific (CORZ): closed unchanged at $14.04, down 3.49% at $13.55 in pre-market.
CleanSpark (CLSK): closed unchanged at $10.09, down 5.05% at $9.58 in pre-market
CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $23.11 (-0.17%), down 4.41% at $22.09 in pre-market.
Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $51.36 (+2.33%), down 7.03% at $47.75 in pre-market.
Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed unchanged at $37.77, down 9.98% at $34.00 in pre-market.
Singapore Blocks Polymarket, Following Taiwan and France (CoinDesk): Over the weekend, Singapore blocked access to Polymarket, labeling it an unlicensed gambling site. This follows similar actions in Taiwan and France, as global scrutiny of the platform grows.
AI Agent Tokens Reel From a Steep Market Correction (The Block): AI agent tokens plunged over the past week, with AI16Z going from $2.26 to $1.10 and GOAT falling from $0.5 to $0.33, while bitcoin held regular across the $95,000 level.
Global Bond Tantrum Is a Wrenching and Worrisome Begin to Recent Yr (Bloomberg): U.S. Treasury yields are nearing 5%, driven by strong economic growth, persistent inflation, and rising government debt, raising global borrowing costs and reducing demand for riskier investments like stocks.
ECB In search of Middle Ground With Rate Cuts, Lane Tells Newspaper (Reuters): The European Central Bank (ECB) plans cautious monetary easing, striving to curb inflation without triggering recession, as wage growth moderates and inflation approaches its 2% goal by mid-2025.
