• The stock market has surged since October 2022, with major indexes posting strong gains.

• With the bull market in stocks now two years old, investors are wondering how long the rally can last.

• Based on stock market experts, the reply is: loads longer.

The stock market bottomed on October 12, 2022, marking two years because the beginning of the continuing bull rally.

Since then, the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average have posted impressive gains of 88%, 62%, and 46%, respectively.

A resilient job market, lower inflation, and continued corporate earnings growth helped push the stock market higher over the past two years.

So, what’s in store for the bull market from here?

Here’s what market experts told Business Insider about what history says regarding the bull market’s future since it enters its third yr.

Freedom Capital Markets, Jay Woods

Chief global strategist Jay Woods of Freedom Capital Markets said what’s most telling regarding the current bull market is that only just a few believed in it at first.

“I feel it is necessary to preface it with when it began, no one believed it. They simply thought it was a bear market rally. After which they doubted that it had legs, after which it was just seven stocks,” Woods told Business Insider.

He added: “And now, swiftly, it’s powerful. And I feel the momentum is continuous. To procure the speed cycle, to procure broadening out, now we’ve got wind at our sails, and this bull market should last on the very least one other 12, possibly 18 months.”

Woods said he’s inspired that market leadership is diverse and not concentrated in mega-cap technology firms. A recent example is the rotation into utility stocks, which have surged on the AI power demand narrative.

A typical Wall Street expression is “rotation is the lifeblood of a bull market,” and that appears to be playing out.

“It’s good to look back and rejoice two years, nevertheless it still looks as if the party is just starting,” Woods said.

Carson Group, Ryan Detrick

Based on Carson Group chief market strategist Ryan Detrick, the bull market in stocks continues to be young.

“Although many might think this bull market has gone too far and is getting old, that won’t the case the least bit. Do you have to look back at history, bull markets last greater than five years on average, making this one at two years actually young,” Detrick told Business Insider.

Detrick said that while he sees more gains ahead, he doesn’t expect one other big yr for returns like in 2023 and to this point in 2024, with the S&P 500 delivering gains of 24% and 22%, respectively.

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As an alternative, Detrick said that the standard gain of a bull market in yr three is about 8%, which is true around the standard annual return for stocks.

“All in all, we expect stocks to be up on the very least low double digits over the following yr,” Detrick said.

Baird, Ross Mayfield

Baird investment strategist Ross Mayfield said the third yr of this current bull rally could deliver stronger returns than history suggests because the first two years of the bull delivered underwhelming performance relative to history.

“The first two years of this bull market have been somewhat muted vs. historical standards, so there’s ample opportunity for outperformance of the on a regular basis yr 3 performance,” Mayfield told Business Insider.

Mayfield also echoed Detrick’s sentiment that the standard bull market is over five years long, so he thinks “there’s a great deal of room to run.”

“It won’t be surprising if yr three of the bull market outperformed the on a regular basis yr three given the rates backdrop, expected earnings growth, and tepid investor sentiment,” Mayfield said.

US Bank Asset Management, Rob Haworth

Investment strategist Rob Haworth of US Bank Asset Management believes the S&P 500 could surge to 6,480 in its third yr of the bull market, representing potential upside of 12%.

Haworth’s bullish view is backed by what really drives stock prices higher: earnings growth.

“The necessary thing forward metric for market returns stays the pace of earnings growth,” Haworth told Business Insider. “As we glance ahead, we still see a constructive path.”

Haworth expects the S&P 500 to deliver $270 in earnings per share next yr, representing about 13% growth from 2024 consensus levels.

“Lower rates of interest from the Federal Reserve and soft or no-landing economic scenarios are helping lift growth into next yr, supporting further equity market gains,” Haworth said.

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