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The Ethereum price motion has significantly underperformed traders’ expectations over the past few months. Ethereum is currently trapped in a bearish trend, with its price now down by 23% over a 30-day period. This downturn contrasts sharply with the hopes of many ETH investors who’ve been anticipating a bullish surge following the launch of Spot Ethereum ETFs.
Nevertheless, technical evaluation suggests that Ethereum’s recent performance just isn’t unusual for the cryptocurrency, because it appears to be mirroring an identical pattern observed in 2016.
Ethereum Maintains Similarities With 2016 Price Movements
Despite the worth concerns, a deeper look into Ethereum’s historical price movements suggests that the present situation won’t be as unfamiliar because it seems. Based on an ongoing evaluation by popular crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen, Ethereum’s price motion in 2024 closely mirrors its performance in 2016 when viewed on the monthly candlestick chart. This pattern of repetition became much more apparent after August 2024 concluded with Ethereum closing on a bearish candle, mirroring the identical consequence in August 2016.
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Isolated, this might’ve probably not meant anything. Nevertheless, as Cowen has highlighted, this pattern has been consistent throughout 2024, dating back to January. Interestingly, Ethereum has closed monthly candlesticks the identical way as in 2016 for eight months in a row. As such, this might give an idea of how Ethereum could proceed to play out for the remainder of the 12 months.
#ETH / #USD monthly candles proceed to trace 2016 perfectly.
If it continues to play out, it might suggest #ETH is green in September, after which red Oct-Dec.
Then in 2025 #ETH turns green for some time pic.twitter.com/G8WtDwQlWY
— Benjamin Cowen (@intocryptoverse) August 21, 2024
Back in 2016, Ethereum eventually went on an enormous 19,000% rally, which saw it reach $1,590 for the primary time. If this continues to play out like in 2016, investors can look towards a green monthly close for Ethereum in September after which three consecutive bearish months from October to December. If this price motion repetition continues after December 2024, Ethereum will eventually go on a notable price rally above its current all-time high. This might push fervent Ethereum bulls into the much-needed profitability they’ve been anticipating.
Road To $5,000?
On the time of writing, Ethereum is trading at $2,445, a decline of 10.85% over the past seven days and 23% over the past 30 days. If the present trend continues to mirror the 2016 pattern, Ethereum’s bearish momentum might persist throughout the rest of the 12 months. Nevertheless, not all hope is lost for Ethereum bulls, because the cryptocurrency is currently hovering around a critical support level that would trigger a rebound upwards.
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Ethereum’s price is at an important support level, specifically on the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level, just above $2,400. A major bounce from this level could signal the beginning of an upward trend, resulting in an in depth above its monthly open by the top of September. An ETH surge above $3,000 into $4,000, and subsequently, $5,000 remains to be within the books.
ETH price above $2,600 | Source: ETHUSDT on Tradingview.com
Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com