With the news that President Joe Biden is not going to seek a second term, it’s time to look at how the stock market has performed during his administration.

While President Joe Biden’s term will not be yet over, it’s firmly on the house stretch with the announcement that he is not going to seek a second term. With that in mind, a recent report has examined how the stock market has fared throughout the Biden Administration.

The report, produced by US Bank, which is owned by US Bancorp (NYSE:USB), analyzed the stock market’s performance since Biden took office and compared it to the performance of past presidents, going back to Ronald Reagan in 1981.

Two bulls and a bear

When Biden took office on January 20, 2021, the S&P 500 was at 3,816. As of the date of the U.S. Bank report, July 12, the big cap benchmark was over 5,600 for a complete return of 48% in almost exactly 3.5 years. That’s an annualized return of about 12%, which is higher than the historical average of the S&P 500.

Biden’s term was marked by two separate bull markets, with a bear market sandwiched in between. In 2021, Biden took over in the course of a bull market, and the S&P 500 returned 27% that 12 months, while the Nasdaq Composite climbed 21%.

In 2022, U.S. stocks had their worst 12 months because the Global Financial Crisis in 2008, because the S&P 500 fell 19% and the Nasdaq was down a whopping 33%.

But at the tip of 2022, a recent bull market began – one which we’re still in today. In 2023, the S&P 500 climbed 24% while the Nasdaq gained 43%, erasing all the losses from 2022. It was the best annual return for the Nasdaq since 2009.

In 2024, the bull market continues as the key large cap indexes have all set all-time highs. Yr-to-date, as of July 24, the S&P 500 is up 16%, while the Nasdaq has increased 18%.

Higher than Trump or Obama?

While Biden’s term will not be yet over, the stock market during his 3.5 years has trailed his past two predecessors, Donald Trump and Barack Obama.

Throughout the Trump years, from January 20, 2017, to January 20, 2021, the S&P 500 had a complete return of 68%.

Throughout the first Obama term, from 2009 to 2013, the S&P 500 returned about 85% across the 4 years, while the second term was barely lower, with a complete return of 53%. Combined, the Obama years saw a roughly 182% total return for the S&P 500.

The George W. Bush years were the worst for the markets, as the big cap benchmark was down 12% in his first term and off 31% in his second term. When combined, the S&P 500 was down 40% in his eight years. Those years were marred by two major events — the dotcom bust and three-year bear market that ran from 2000 to 2002, and the Global Financial Crisis from 2007 to 2009.

Clinton years saw the best returns

The stock market was flying high within the Nineteen Nineties and rose roughly 210% over the course of Bill Clinton’s two terms. The primary term saw the S&P 500 rise 79%, while within the second term it gained 73%.

During George H. W. Bush’s single term within the White House, the big cap benchmark rose 51%.

Finally, the Ronald Reagan era resulted within the S&P 500 rising 118% in eight years, jumping 30% in the primary 4 years and 67% in his second term.

So, to date, Biden ranks toward the lower end of the center of the pack, but there are still six months left, so the story will not be yet written.

With the likelihood of rate of interest cuts this 12 months, some pundits suggest the S&P 500 could reach 6,000 or higher by the tip of the 12 months. Nonetheless, it’s a presidential election 12 months, and an unusual one at that, so investors should expect volatility and uncertainty.