Eli Lilly has announced a $400m reduction in its 2024 revenue forecast, marking a 3% shortfall from its October 2024 guidance.
The revised outlook, discussed on the JP Morgan Healthcare Conference 2025 on 14 January, has been attributed to stocking levels and unexpected market dynamics in Q4 2024 within the diabetes glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonist (GLP-1RA) market.
For Q4 2024, Lilly now expects global revenue of roughly $13.5bn, a forty five% increase from Q4 2023. This growth is driven by the strong performance of its incretin-based drugs, including diabetes treatment Mounjaro (tirzepatide), which made $3.5bn in sales, and obesity drug Zepbound (tirzepatide), which made $1.9bn. Moreover, the corporate reported a 20% increase in revenue from non-incretin products across oncology, immunology, and neuroscience. Despite these gains, the general revenue forecast fell in need of initial projections.
Shares in the corporate dipped by 7% following the 14 January announcement before recovering barely to shut 5% lower than the market open.
Eli Lilly’s CEO Dave Ricks acknowledged the challenges in predicting growth within the rapidly expanding GLP-1RA market.
Through the conference presentation, he said: “It’s at all times disappointing to miss your personal expectations. We’re coping with a business that’s unprecedented in our sector when it comes to size, scale, and growth rate.”
The corporate faced significant disruptions last yr as a consequence of shortages of tirzepatide, the lively ingredient in each Mounjaro and Zepbound, as demand outpaced supply. The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) declared the shortages over in December 2024, following substantial manufacturing investments by Lilly. These shortages drove some patients to hunt alternatives from compounding pharmacies, impacting sales momentum.
Lilly has asked to affix an opposing lawsuit brought by compounding pharmacies against the FDA over the agency’s decision that the corporate’s blockbuster weight-loss and diabetes drugs aren’t any longer in brief supply. Lilly stated that it couldn’t depend on the FDA to completely defend its interests.
The court case will determine whether compounding pharmacies and facilities can keep selling cheaper versions of the corporate’s tirzepatide-based drugs, as they’ve been allowed to do throughout the shortages.
To fulfill the surging demand, Lilly plans to “produce no less than 60% more saleable doses of incretins in the primary half of the yr in comparison with the primary half of 2024″, said Ricks. The corporate’s investments in manufacturing infrastructure underscore the growing significance of GLP-1RAs in treating diabetes, obesity, and associated conditions equivalent to sleep apnoea and heart failure.