Summary

The U.S. economy is powerful as we start each 2025 and a second Trump presidency. We expect to see that 4Q GDP rose 2.8% and 2024 GDP grew roughly 2.6%. Originally of 2024, we expected 1.7% growth for the yr. We expected Personal Consumption Expenditures to average about 1.2%. The ultimate tally may very well be 3%. The job market cooled but didn’t freeze, and the Fed’s well-telegraphed plans to chop short-term rates result in a useful decline in long-term rates through the summer. While many consumers are still scuffling with inflation, the wealthiest households are spending, bolstered by 2.4% unemployment for faculty graduates, a low, locked-in mortgage rate, and gains of their stock portfolio. Our optimism is tempered by the jump within the 10-year Treasury rate to 4.8% from 3.65% in September. Our 2025 forecast for U.S. GDP growth is 2.1%. The median estimate of Fed officials is also 2.1%. Our quarterly GDP estimates for 2025 are 1.7%, 1.8%, 2.3%, and a pair of.6%. 4 indicators driven by a broad array of timely data support our assessment that the economy is healthy and growing. On January 9, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDP Nowcast was estimating 4Q growth of two.7%. On January 10, the Federal Reserve Bank of Latest York’s Staff Nowcast for 4Q called for two.36% growth. The Weekly Economic Index tracked by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas is predicated on 10 each day and weekly indicators of consumer behavior, the labor market, and production. If, for instance, an in