(Bloomberg) — US stocks are unlikely to sustain their above-average performance of the past decade as investors turn to other assets including bonds for higher returns, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists said.

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The S&P 500 Index is anticipated to post an annualized nominal total return of just 3% over the next 10 years, in step with an evaluation by strategists including David Kostin. That compares with 13% inside the last decade, and a long-term average of 11%.

Moreover they see a roughly 72% likelihood that the benchmark index will trail Treasury bonds, and a 33% likelihood they’ll lag inflation through 2034.

“Investors have to be prepared for equity returns through the subsequent decade that are toward the lower end of their typical performance distribution,” the team wrote in a note dated Oct. 18.

US equities have have rallied following the worldwide financial crisis, first driven by near-zero rates of interest and later by bets on resilient economic growth. The S&P 500 is on the fitting track to outperform the rest of the world in eight of the last 10 years, in step with data compiled by Bloomberg.

Still, this 12 months’s 23% bounce has been concentrated in a handful of an important technology stocks. The Goldman strategists said they expect returns to broaden out and the equal-weighted S&P 500 to outperform the market cap-weighted benchmark in the next decade.

Even when the rally were to remain concentrated, the S&P 500 would post below-average returns of about 7%, they said.

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