In a breakdown of Bitcoin’s current market dynamics, distinguished crypto analyst Dan Gambardello, in his latest video titled “Bitcoin Must Do This Now,” addressed his 368,000 followers on YouTube regarding the critical resistance levels Bitcoin is currently testing. Gambardello emphasized the importance of those levels for each short-term price movements and broader market indicators.
Why Bitcoin Must Turn Bullish Now
Gambardello’s evaluation begins with an emphasis on the importance of the short-term holder cost basis, which currently stands at $63,600. He highlighted this metric as a pivotal momentum indicator, underscoring its role in determining the immediate bearish or bullish nature of the market. “Bitcoin is just $2,000 away from the short-term holder cost basis now at $63,600.” In keeping with Gambardello, it is a critical momentum indicator investors need to look at.
Bitcoin price evaluation | Source: X @cryptorecruitr
Gambardello also maps out the assorted resistance zones that Bitcoin needs to overcome to signal an optimistic market turnaround. He points out that Bitcoin is working just above the 20-day moving average on the day by day chart on the time of his evaluation. Nonetheless, the proximity of the closing time for the day by day candle left the situation highly tentative. The 50-day and 200-day moving averages were also discussed as significant barriers that needed to be breached to substantiate a bullish trend.
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Along with these moving averages, the Fibonacci retracement levels form one other cornerstone of his technical scrutiny. He elaborates on the potential for Bitcoin to come across a lower high resistance area, which could lead on to either a price consolidation or a downward correction if these levels didn’t be surpassed.
Gambardello also ventures into macroeconomic territory. He indicates that the prevalence of recession-related fears could hint at broader economic shifts which may impact the broader crypto market. “The algorithms on X are bombarding me with recession posts, recession data, recession charts. There’s a probable increase because there are literally a variety of indicators that the market goes to crash,” he explained.
Furthermore, the crypto analyst is heavily specializing in the 20-week moving average, a level he describes as a historically significant marker in distinguishing between bull and bear markets. The failure to sustain levels above this moving average, he points out, often precedes bearish trends, while support at or above this line could herald bullish conditions. “Failing to get above the 20-week moving average is what Bitcoin does when it’s entering bear markets,” he observes.
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From a momentum perspective, the analyst drew attention to the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicators. Each tools, he mentions, currently suggest that Bitcoin is well-positioned for potential upward movement, given the consolidation patterns and cooling periods observed recently.
Nonetheless, Bitcoin must move upwards now. “Bitcoin really took off last cycle when the RSI was around 54 […] for those who return two cycles, Bitcoin was consistently around 53, 50 near 54 before taking off every time […] consolidation within the RSI, then boom. So we’re from a momentum perspective right where it must be. However the move that we want is up now,” the crypto analyst warns.
One other warning sign may very well be a long-lasting fall below the 20-week moving average. “We’d like to see Bitcoin above that 20 week moving average. […] If we see resistance […] we’ve to anticipate that we could go within the lower $50,000s very fast. It could occur very fast,” Gambardello says, marking it as a necessary condition for the commencement of a sustained bullish phase.
From a bullish perspective, Gambardello is waiting for a breakout above $63,700. “We’re in search of bullish confirmations to interrupt this whole range and really currently it’s like $63,000 or as much as around 63,700 – that’s the range, it’s not even a wide array for Bitcoin to make the move but that’s what we’re watching,” he remarks.
Overall, it’s an issue of $50,000 or $70,000 as Gambardello puts it on X: “A break above could trigger a mini run towards $70k. Failure could mean latest lows around $50k.”
At press time, BTC traded at $
Bitcoin can’t close above the 200-day EMA, 1-day chart | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.com
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com