Travis Kling, the founder and Chief Investment Officer of Ikigai Asset Management, is proposing a direct link between the US presidential election outcomes and the Bitcoin price. Via X, Kling delves into the political dynamics and their perceived implications for crypto markets, particularly specializing in the potential re-election of Donald Trump.
Why September 10 Could Be Crucial For Bitcoin
Kling’s evaluation hinges on several key political events and their corresponding impacts on betting markets, which he believes are reflective of broader economic expectations. “NFA. I’m incorrect often. Bitcoin has likely been trading with a correlation to Trump winning. And that is smart to me. BTC/crypto shall be MUCH higher off under a Trump admin,” Kling stated.
He emphasized the Democratic National Convention’s perceived shortcomings and an expected endorsement of Trump by Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as pivotal moments that would drive the Bitcoin price. “The DNC doesn’t look like going particularly well. RFK is alleged to be endorsing Trump on Friday. These aspects are showing up on Polymarket and if RFK goes for Trump, I might guess Poly would widen out further,” Kling noted. He anticipates these developments will peak on September 10.
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That is when the primary debate between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris shall be in Philadelphia. “It’s Trump’s to lose IMO. If he shows up for Kamala the way in which he showed up for Biden, polls/Poly should widen further still.”
Kling expects the Bitcoin price to surge towards $72,000. “On condition that BTC is trading with Trump, it could make sense to me that every one this is able to add as much as BTC being back as much as the highest of this 6-month range,” Kling speculated.
Nonetheless, he also warned of an excessive amount of optimism. Kling is unsure if the BTC price can break out of the trading range established in mid-March “prior to the election, unless polls/Poly REALLY widen out for Trump. Hate it or like it, this election is extremely consequential for us, short-term price motion just being one aspect of that.”
Notably, not everyone seems to be sharing Kling’s opinion. Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Assets Research at VanEck, provided a contrasting perspective. Sigel stated, “Bitcoin is Not Currently Trading With Trump Odds, Though I Expect That to Change.
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FalconX, a outstanding crypto prime broker, also recently conducted an evaluation which scrutinized the correlation between Bitcoin prices and Trump’s electoral odds on Polymarket—a platform for betting on political outcomes. From June 1 to August 15, their findings indicated no apparent correlation, underscoring that other aspects might need influenced Bitcoin’s price more significantly. These aspects included the 50,000 BTC sell-off by the German government and liquidations by former customers of Mt. Gox.
Undoubtedly a coalition of Trump and Kennedy Jr.’s can be extremely bullish for Bitcoin. While it enhances Trump’s odds of winning the US election, one other strong Bitcoin supporter would join the Trump campaign. Kennedy Jr., like Trump, has advocated for substantial government involvement in Bitcoin, proposing that the Treasury Department can purchase 550 Bitcoins day by day until it amasses 4 million BTC in reserves.
At press time, BTC traded at $61,067.
Bitcoin price, 1-day chart | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.com
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com