You would possibly need to take Feb. 21, 2024, off from work.
Why?
A vital company in all of humanity, Nvidia (NVDA), will likely be reporting earnings after the close of trading! One word from the leader of the King of Chips — Mr. Jensen Huang — may either make or break the broader marketplace for weeks on end.
I do know this sounds utterly ridiculous, nevertheless it underscores how insane it has grow to be to look at and report on this leading AI play. Here is a company that will thoroughly show triple-digit-percentage earnings growth in its newest quarter and it could possibly be seen as a letdown.
In actual fact, Nvidia could report triple-digit-percentage earnings growth and description two more quarters of it and it still is likely to be not enough for investors which have sent the refill 55% for the rationale that start of 2024.
And I feel this concern is being nicely highlighted in a recent Bank of America note from veteran chips analyst Vivek Arya that I just stumbled upon in my FriYay inbox.
Here’s what caught my attention from Arya:
“[We] won’t be surprised to see a notable but transient pullback after the recent parabolic run-up throughout the stock – Bloomberg options indicate ~11% implied move post earnings. Expectations have been steadily moving up, with some bullish buy-side estimates for Nvidia F4Q/1Q report/guided sales at $21.7 billion/$23 billion or 9%/7% above consensus, leaving less room for upside surprises.”
Having said that, Arya is rolling with a Buy rating and $800 price goal on Nvidia into earnings.
He added:
“Nonetheless, in our view, any potential mismatch versus bullish expectations is likely to be going supply (memory, packaging) relatively than demand or competition related. More importantly, we expect stock volatility to likely be short-lived especially as investors wait for Nvidia’s flagship GPU Tech Conference (GTC) scheduled for March 18-21, featuring vital pipeline, partner, and AI TAM [total addressable market] updates. As reference Nvidia’s stock was on average 6% higher (vs. SPX up 1%) T+1 days following the last six annual GTC events.”
Just one other day in Nvidia hype land, I suppose.