US consumer prices rose greater than expected in January, in accordance with the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics released Tuesday morning.
Investors had been closely watching the print for clues on when the Federal Reserve will begin cutting rates of interest. Markets are literally pricing in an almost 80% likelihood the Fed cuts rates in June, bucking previous expectations that the central bank would begin cutting rates in May.
“This was a nasty report for those betting the Fed goes to start decreasing rates of interest soon,” Eugenio Aleman, chief economist at Raymond James, wrote in response to the hotter-than-expected print.
Ellen Zentner, chief US economist at Morgan Stanley, added: “The acceleration in core PCE is aligned with our view of a bumpy path ahead. We predict that sequential prints in the first quarter of 2024 will likely be overall higher than what now we’ve seen throughout the last 6 months. This acceleration will likely be one factor delaying the alternative to start cutting rates to June this yr.”
Citi, meanwhile, warned that the recent inflation print will likely affect the recent stock market rally.
“Strong core CPI is just not a game changer but more prone to drive a short-term pullback,” Stuart Kaiser, head of Citi’s US equity trading strategy, wrote. “With strong growth data throughout the background, it will be hard for the Fed to cut as early as some investors hoped and lift market concerns about an overheating type scenario despite very restrictive policy.”
“We should always get a pullback here, perhaps throughout the 2-4% type range, but that’s somewhat limited by the undeniable incontrovertible fact that the economy continues to be quite strong,” he continued.
Stocks tumbled in early trading following the report while the yield on the 10-year Treasury note (^TNX) ticked about 10 basis points higher to trade near 4.3%.