Federal Reserve’s future policy path ‘highly uncertain’ as Powell downplays forecasts on heels of Trump unknowns

The Federal Reserve continued to signal it would cut rates of interest two more times this 12 months, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell adopting a perceived dovish stance, a nice surprise for investors who got here into Wednesday’s policy decision with heightened fears over “stagflation” and the potential for a US recession.

“It is a clearing event,” Dennis DeBusschere, president of 22V Research, told Yahoo Finance following the choice. “You didn’t get a Fed that was going to speed up the downside in markets.”

Read more: How the Fed rate decision affects your bank accounts, loans, bank cards, and investments

One big reason stemmed from the Fed’s “base case” that tariff-induced inflation shall be “transitory” and have a short-term “one-off” effect on price growth. This was reflected within the central bank’s projections, which forecast year-end PCE inflation rising to 2.7% before reaching its 2% goal by 2027 — “a relief to investors” who had been bracing for stickier prices, in accordance with DeBusschere.

But some experts warn that “transitory” inflation stays an unrealistic expectation — and that the projections for 2 rate cuts this 12 months could unravel because the Trump administration continues to flip-flop on trade policy. Powell himself said “there’s a level of inertia” to remain consistent with prior forecasts until greater clarity emerges.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks during a news conference after the Federal Open Market Committee meeting, Wednesday, March 19, 2025, on the Federal Reserve in Washington. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin) · ASSOCIATED PRESS

“Uncertainty was a highlight of the statement,” Rick Rieder, chief investment officer of world fixed income at BlackRock, wrote in response to Wednesday’s decision. “Like market participants, the Fed is at a highly uncertain point, and it’s in need of time and data to find out the subsequent plan of action.”

Each consumer and producer inflation showed a deceleration in price growth over the month of February. But details under the surface pointed to a possible stalling out in reaching the Fed’s 2% goal, with tariffs serving as the best threat to Powell’s “transitionary” base case.

There are also concerns the Fed may cut rates due to a weakening labor market and slowing economic growth — a move that would not be cheered by investors.

“Everybody wants two cuts, three cuts, 4 cuts. You do not need any cuts. You wish earnings growth. You wish a robust economy,” Ken Mahoney, CEO of Mahoney Asset Management, told Yahoo Finance on Thursday. “Watch out what you want for.”

Despite a rather more hawkish tilt from the central bank, with more FOMC members forecasting rates of interest to either hold regular or come down by just 0.25% as a substitute of the consensus 0.50%, traders still boosted their very own expectations of where rates of interest could end the 12 months.

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