QuantumScape (NYSE: QS) was once considered a promising play on the solid-state battery market, but its stock has tumbled greater than 70% over the past three years. Like many other start-ups that went public by merging with special purpose acquisition firms (SPACs) in recent times, QuantumScape overpromised and underdelivered.
QuantumScape originally claimed it could commercialize its first batteries by 2024, however it still hasn’t sold a single battery yet. But could its stock bounce back over the subsequent three years because it finally starts mass-producing its batteries?
QuantumScape develops solid-state lithium-metal batteries that generate power from solid electrolytes as a substitute of the liquid electrolytes utilized in lithium-ion batteries. Solid-state batteries are more immune to higher temperatures and charge more quickly than their lithium-ion counterparts, but they’re also way more expensive to supply.
QuantumScape’s QSE-5 batteries have an energy density of greater than 800 Wh/L (watt-hours per liter) and will be charged from 10% to 80% in lower than quarter-hour. By comparison, most lithium-ion batteries have a mean density of 300-700 Wh/L, and they typically require 20 minutes to an hour to be charged to 80%.
Volkswagen is one in all QuantumScape’s top investors, and it has been co-developing those batteries with the corporate for over a decade. But even with that support, the corporate is struggling to ramp up its production. As a substitute, its adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) stays negative, and it’s racking up wider net losses every 12 months.
|
Metric |
2022 |
2023 |
2024 |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Adjusted EBITDA (in thousands and thousands) |
($249) |
($249) |
($285) |
|
Net loss (in thousands and thousands) |
($412) |
($445) |
($478) |
Data source: QuantumScape.
Yet, QuantumScape still has an enterprise value of $1.9 billion, which suggests its investors expect it to eventually generate meaningful revenue when it commercializes and mass-produces its first batteries.
The corporate still had $911 million in total liquidity at the top of 2024, and it insists that money runway can last through the second half of 2028. It also says, “Any additional funds from customer inflows or capital markets activity would further extend this money runway.” In other words, QuantumScape won’t go bankrupt anytime soon.
QuantumScape began shipping some low-volume samples to pick out automakers within the second half of 2024. It plans to ship much more advanced samples in 2025 because it transitions from its current Raptor separator process to its more advanced Cobra separator process — which should improve its cell reliability, boost its product yields, and pave the best way toward mass production and commercialization of its QSE-5 batteries.