A debate is brewing over the likelihood of the USA government buying more Bitcoin in the approaching 12 months. This development follows US President Donald Trump’s earlier executive order geared toward establishing a national Bitcoin reserve. Nevertheless, opinions on the probability of this happening in 2025 are sharply divided amongst financial analysts.
Bloomberg Analyst Cites Political Hurdles
Based on a latest evaluation by a Bloomberg expert, there may be a meager 30% probability the US government will augment its Bitcoin portfolio in 2025. The analyst cited Washington’s current political environment as being a serious deterrent.
With the Republicans controlling a slim majority of seats in Congress, any resolution to purchase Bitcoin is prone to be opposed resolutely by the Democratic party.
Bloomberg legal analyst says 30% probability Federal Government buys Bitcoin this 12 months.
Says Trump won’t put political capital into passing laws, because he could make it occur unilaterally if he wanted do via the Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF). pic.twitter.com/NnVhEfCR8m
— matthew sigel, recovering CFA (@matthew_sigel) March 21, 2025
The analyst also posited that if Trump was indeed serious about buying Bitcoin for the country’s reserve, he could have already got made use of current government channels, including the Exchange Stabilization Fund, to buy such assets. This note puts doubtful whether a large-scale Bitcoin buyout is feasible and mandatory soon.
VanEck Provides A More Optimistic Projection
In contrast to the Bloomberg analyst’s conservative assessment, Matt Sigel, Head of Digital Assets Research at VanEck, presents a considerably more optimistic scenario.
Sigel believes the probabilities of the US government purchasing Bitcoin in 2025 are significantly higher, putting it between 50% and 60%.
Image: Gemini Imagen
(The particular name of the Bloomberg analyst is just not mentioned within the available search results. Nevertheless, the data was shared by Sigel, who referenced a note from a Bloomberg legal analyst).
Meanwhile, the brighter outlook suggests that the advantages of keeping BTC in a national reserve outweigh the political challenges mentioned by the Bloomberg analyst. Sigel believes that the federal government could realize the strategic importance of including cryptocurrencies in its financial strategy.
BTCUSD trading at $84,320 on the every day chart: TradingView.com
Trump’s Bitcoin Executive Order Sparks Speculation
Speculations concerning the US government purchasing Bitcoin began after Trump issued an executive order, which hinted on the creation of a national crypto reserve. The specifics and timing are still not clear, causing varied opinions amongst experts. If the US holds a considerable amount of Bitcoin, it could greatly influence each the crypto world and the broader financial market.
Featured image from Gemini Imagen, chart from TradingView
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