Starbucks’ (SBUX) is striving to brew up a comeback.
The Seattle-based coffee giant is predicted to post its first quarter fiscal 12 months 2025 results on Tuesday after market close. This will likely be the primary full quarter under CEO Brian Niccol, who took the helm on Sept. 9.
Wall Street expects revenue to are available in at $9.32 billion, in comparison with $9.43 billion from the 12 months ago quarter. Same-store sales and foot traffic are projected to say no 5.30% and seven.28%, respectively, 12 months over 12 months.
Analysts expect a slight improvement in foot traffic from 1 / 4 ago, offset by lower ticket growth.
Bank of America analyst Sara Senatore, who has a Buy rating on Starbucks, told Yahoo Finance the US performance will likely be a key indicator for the general business.
“If the US starts working again, it becomes very, very hard to make any form of structural argument that the Starbucks brand is not good,” she said. Wall Street expects US same-store sales to drop 4.06%, in comparison with the 6% decline last quarter.
Citi analyst Jon Tower said there may be “a chance to show the brand around.” However the time, cost, and the slow trajectory of its same store sales, store count, and earnings growth in comparison with prior years, “may prove less appealing to investors than what’s currently implied by shares.”
Previously 12 months, Starbucks stock has gained 5%, far lagging S&P 500’s (^GSPC) 24% rise. However the shares have spiked 32% prior to now six month, after Niccol was announced as the brand new CEO in August.
Here’s what Wall Street expects, per Bloomberg consensus estimates, in comparison with the primary quarter of fiscal 2024:
Revenue: $9.32 billion versus $9.43 billion
Adjusted earnings per share: $0.66 versus $0.75
Same-store sales: -5.30% versus +5.00%
Foot traffic: -7.28% versus +2.0%
Ticket Growth: 1.87% versus 3.00%
The price of coffee has been soaring — coffee futures (KC=F) are up 80% within the last 12 months — but analysts say the chance to Starbuck’s margins must be limited. Bank of America estimates coffee makes up about 22% of Starbucks’ cost of products, and never all of it’s the green coffee beans themselves. Niccol likely won’t change his promise to pause price increases, given the corporate hedges against commodity fluctuations with fixed price contracts.