Following such a historic run prior to now two years, it was only a matter of time before the projections for a Bitcoin bear market took over crypto discussions. Several pundits and experts have shared after they think the digital asset market will reach its cycle top and possibly witness a reversal.
While the gang remains to be fairly optimistic concerning the potential of varied cryptocurrencies, the market moving in the wrong way won’t come as a surprise. A well-liked crypto trader on the social media platform has echoed an analogous sentiment, providing a possible timing for the arrival of the crypto bear market.
Why The Bear Market Could Begin In April
In a Jan. 25 post on the X platform, distinguished crypto analyst Ali Martinez shared his “unpopular opinion” concerning the current Bitcoin bull cycle and its potential end. In response to the pundit, the bear market could begin in roughly three months.
The reasoning behind this projection is the historical price performance of Bitcoin across different halving cycles. The Bitcoin halving, an event that happens roughly every 4 years, tightens Bitcoin’s supply by slashing the mining reward by half.
As seen in 2024 — probably the most recent halving yr, the halving event has historically been a precursor to substantial price growth. Nevertheless, post-halving rallies are typically followed by significant profit-taking, resulting in market consolidation and a bear market.
Source: Ali_charts/X
From a historical standpoint, roughly 276 days after the halving event have proven to be pivotal within the trajectory of the Bitcoin market. Specifically, the Bitcoin price experienced significant price growth after crossing the 276-day milestone within the 2012 -2016 halving cycle.
Nevertheless, the BTC market witnessed a shift in sentiment and a severe market downturn 367 days following halving — 91 days after the 276-day milestone. If this historical pattern holds, investors could see the bear market begin sometime in late April.
As of this writing, the value of BTC sits just beneath the $105,000 mark, reflecting no significant movement prior to now day.
Retail Interest On The Rise?
While historical price data is an efficient way of analyzing a cycle’s trajectory, on-chain data is one other method that sheds light on cyclical price movements. One such data is the retail interest in Bitcoin, which measures the demand of small-scale investors within the premier cryptocurrency.
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Typically, demand from retail investors is commonly correlated with the height euphoria phase. “Taking a look at past cycles, the last two major spikes in searches for “easy methods to buy crypto” occurred when BTC was around $65,000 in May 2021 and $69,000 in November 2021—right on the market top,” Martinez said in a separate post on X.
Source: Ali_charts/X
As shown within the chart above, the “interest over time” indicator appears to be picking up again in 2025. This may very well be a signal of an impending top for the crypto market.
The worth of Bitcoin on the day by day timeframe | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView
Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView